(NECN:
Peter Howe, Boston) - We’re always known super-expensive Greater
Boston needs way more affordable housing. But Thursday regional
planning experts put an astonishing new number on just how many new
housing units the region will need by 2040 to keep the economy
growing and accommodating new workers to replace retiring Baby
Boomers: 300,000 to 435,000 more houses, apartments, condos,
townhouses and micro-units.
"We
have a lot of baby boomers who are likely to retire at an increasing
pace over the course of the next few decades," said Marc
Draisen, executive director of the Metropolitan Area Planning
Council, which conducted the study. "They're going to be leaving
their jobs, and we need young workers to fill in those jobs if our
economy's going to remain strong … We're going to have to have a
place for those workers to live, and that means building more housing
in the city of Boston, around the city of Boston, and even in
urbanized areas in the suburbs, village centers, near commuter rail
stations and other places."
The
MAPC study takes into account demographics and also a growing trend
that average household size has been steadily declining, and looks
likely to keep declining, as more and more people live longer alone
or unmarried or widowed or choosing not to have roommates.
But
just how big a number is 435,000 housing units? According to Census
Bureau data, that is as much housing as now exists in Boston, Quincy,
Cambridge, Somerville, Chelsea, and Revere – combined. (The Census
Bureau website showed as of 2010 272,481 housing units in Boston,
42,838 in Quincy, 47,291 in Cambridge, 33,720 in Somerville, 12,621
in Chelsea, and 22,100 in Revere.) Imagine the total housing stock in
Boston and those five neighboring cities – and that’s what has to
be built, all over again, over the next 26 years, according to the
MAPC’s scenario that envisions the strongest economic growth.
Gregory
Vasil, president of the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, considers
that goal extraordinarily difficult to reach. "It's going to be
difficult, and I think we're going to have to change in terms of the
kind of product and the kind of housing that we look into,"
Vasil said, with much more willingness for developers to build and
residents to buy more land-efficient townhomes, apartments, and
multi-until residential living. That, in turn, will require dozens of
communities making big changes in what they’ll allow to be built
and where within their borders.
"Zoning
would be enormous" to change, Vasil said. "Many communities
around Massachusetts, especially towns, don't have areas of their
town and community zoned for a multi-family" development.
Besides zoning, Vasil said, developing 435,000 more housing units
around Greater Boston also could drive huge issues of water and sewer
infrastructure, parking, and public transportation.
But
Patricia L. Belden, chief operating officer of Preservation Of
Affordable Housing, who has helped build or save 8,000 units of
affordable housing nationally over the last 13 years, said she
considers the MAPC’s target doable by 2040 – with the right
attitudes and commitment.
"Zoning,
water and sewer – they are barriers, but they are also barriers
that can go away more readily with better coordination and
communication," Belden said. For the region to reach anything
close to the level of increased housing the MAPC identifies as
necessary, Belden said, "That vision needs to be shared. It
needs to be shared by cities and towns who have and play a part in it
and see that a growing economy also is in their interest."
Before
leaving office, former Boston mayor Thomas M. Menino late last year
set a goal of 30,000 more housing units in Boston within a decade.
Massachusetts Governor Deval L. Patrick has floated a goal of 10,000
more housing units per year being constructed and developed across
Massachusetts.
What
the MAPC report suggests is that far from being bold or ambitious
goals, those may just be down payments on the kind of new residential
development needed for Greater Boston to maintain the kind of
economic vibrancy it’s come to expect and depend on in the 1990s
and 2000s.
"A
strong economy depends on a strong workforce," Draisen said,
"and those workers need somewhere to live -- or they're not
going to come to the Boston region."
With
videographer Dan Smith and video editor Lauren Kleciak
Tags:
Boston, Peter Howe, Boston housing, housing needs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If
we don’t have the housing we need, we can’t attract the people we
need, and it discourages employers from moving to the region,” said
Marc Draisen, the council’s executive director.
If
there is strong growth, a large number of communities would see their
population expand, some substantially, according to the report.
Boston’s population could shoot from 617,000 in 2010 to more than
700,000 in 2030, with nearby urban areas also expecting growth.
‘If we don’t have the
housing we need, we can’t attract the people we need, and it
discourages employers from moving to the region.’
MARC DRAISEN, Executive
director, Metropolitan Area Planning Council
In
the Globe North area, Everett, Revere, Somerville, Methuen, and
Malden could grow more than 20 percent by the year 2030, according to
the report. But 14 communities are projected to lose residents,
including Boxford, Wenham, Nahant, Newbury, and Topsfield.
The
region will see strong growth if it can build enough housing,
particularly apartments and condos in urban areas and town centers,
if it can attract and retain more young people, and if the trend
toward urban living continues, according to the report.
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